Barometer: SMEs more optimistic about future

Continued low inflation and reduced interest rates have led to brighter expectations. In particular, the difficult situation in the construction sector is easing gradually.

More SMEs predict their situation will improve than those who predict a deterioration. This is informed by expectations of economic recovery more generally, which depends to a crucial extent on stronger private consumption. However, there are uncertainties regarding this, and the situation is being monitored with cautious hope.

“Since the spring, SMEs’ outlooks on the economy have been developing in a more positive direction. This indicates an economic recovery. Vibrant SMEs are important and crucial for economic growth, employment and investment,” says Economic Affairs Minister Sakari Puisto.

Suomen Yrittäjät, Finnvera and the Ministry of Employment and the Economy publish the SME barometer twice a year. This time, around 4,200 business responded to the survey in June and July.

Investment appetite still modest

SMEs are showing increased appetite for investment, but it continues to be modest. Industry is the only sector where companies which are increasing investment outnumber those who expect to reduce their investments.

Compared to the spring barometer, by contrast, SMEs seem to have increased their intents to recruitment intentions. Fourteen per cent intend to increase headcount, while 11% intend to decrease it. Among SMEs, 75% intend to keep their headcount on the same level. 

Tariff policy raising costs

In 2025, SMEs’ export expectations have been dampened by strained trade relations arising from the USA’s tariff policy. Just over one in ten SMEs says that international tariff policy or other limitations on trade have led to higher costs. In addition, almost one in ten SME has experienced stiffer competition as a result of tariffs.

“Uncertainty about international trade rules has caused grey hairs for business owners this year. For companies exporting to the USA, the operating environment has been exceptionally unclear, with the 15% tariff level forming significant harm for many SMEs. Companies want predictability and trade that is as frictionless as possible, so they can dare to invest and expand to international markets,” says Juhana Brotherus, a Vice President and the Chief Economist at Suomen Yrittäjät.

Weak growth orientation

SMEs have long shown a declining desire to dry. The most recent figures indicate that the system is plateauing.

Over one third of SMEs is growth-oriented, either strongly or in line with its opportunities. In particular, the share of companies that are growing in line with their opportunities has risen slightly from the record low numbers last year. On the whole, however, growth orientation continues to be at a low level compared to previous years.

“Growth companies are important, as they develop innovations, are motors of growth, and accelerate other businesses. A positive sign of economic recovery is that SMEs owned by young people have retained strong future outlooks. Finland needs more expansionary businesses and business owners who bravely take risks,” Brotherus says.

Growth from R&D

One in four SMEs says that it does research and development (R&D). The proportion is highest in industry, where 37% of companies say that actively conduct R&D. Five per cent of SMEs who do not yet do R&D are planning to do so in the next year. This is a sign of a positive development.

The most common public sources of R&D funding are local and regional authorities, such as the ELY Centres and the national organization Business Finland.

Read more about the SME barometer and its regional reports here.

Problems persist in funding

Companies continue to experience problems accessing funding. In the autumn SME barometer, 43% of companies with finance needs said they had not received or applied for finance in spite of their need. In spring 2021, this figure was 25%.

“However, companies’ financial situation has not worsened any further, and the need for working capital has even fallen. Only 15% of all respondents experienced problems accessing finance. Instead of focusing on strengthening cushions against uncertainty, I would encourage companies to start investing in the future. They are the most important way to ensure growth and competitiveness. Right now is the correct moment, as demand in the markets on Finland’s doorstep is growing, skilled labour is available and interest rates are low,” says Juha Ketola, Business Director at Finnvera.

Finnvera is being increasingly required to guarantee companies’ bank loans. As many as 64% of strongly expansionary SMEs need a guarantee from Finnvera to guarantee finance from banks.

“Finnvera’s basic task it to complement the finance market where financing problems are greatest. Meanwhile, SMEs have become increasingly self-reliant, and an ever larger group of companies is debt-free. We encourage companies to borrow to expand if they need to. They should seek growth from export and, in the current operating environment, more frequently from new markets. A big question is whether SMEs know the sufficient ways to protect themselves against export risks or how to use finance to ensure deals,” Ketola says.

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