Summary

SMEs’ economic outlook has improved slightly compared to both last spring and the previous year. The expectations have been supported by slowing inflation, falling interest rates, and a successful disengagement from Russian energy and trade. However, trade tensions stemming from stricter US tariff policies and increased geopolitical uncertainty have left SMEs cautious. The balance figure for economic outlook stands at 3, which is two points higher than in the spring 2025 barometer.

Of SMEs, 24% believe economic conditions will improve during the next 12 months, while 21% believe they will worsen. In the spring barometer, the share of those anticipating improvement was just under one percentage point lower, and those expecting a downturn were over two percentage points higher. Just over half of SMEs think that the economic conditions will remain the same.

SMEs’ expectations about the Finnish economy are thus broadly similar to or slightly weaker than most other forecasts. In any event, the economy and SMEs’ expectations remain in a state of exceptionally high uncertainty.

Growth expectations rising, but uncertainty cuts investments

SMEs have begun to expect their turnover will increase at the same time as their general expectations of the economy have risen from their lowest levels. The balance figure for turnover expectations rose by four points from the spring 2025 barometer, now reaching 14.

SMEs’ expectations about profitability have dropped considerably in recent years, while simultaneously general confidence in the economy has decreased. While the greatest uncertainty has eased, the balance figure for profitability expectations remains negative at −5.

SMEs expect to significantly reduce their investments in the near future. Weak investment intentions have been visible in the SME barometer results for several years. As a result of prolonged uncertainty and weak economic conditions, industry is the only major sector where more companies intend to increase investments than decrease them. Despite a small rise, the balance figure for investment expectations remains negative at −11.

A positive signal in SMEs’ investment expectations is the sharp rise in the balance figure reflecting investment plans of strongly growth-oriented companies. This figure now stands at 47, compared to 20 in spring 2024.

The vast majority of companies, 63%, plan to keep the level of innovation, production, and product development unchanged. The balance figure for innovation and R&D intentions has remained close to zero for more than two years, offering little support for a broad-based strengthening of growth conditions. Tight financial circumstances in recent years have limited opportunities for active innovation and product development.

SMEs hold on to their staff

SMEs are looking after their staff and enduring weak economic conditions by retaining their employees. Fourteen per cent of SMEs intend to hire more staff over the next year. By contrast, 11% expect to reduce headcount. A large majority, 75%, of SMEs continues to intend to retain its current staff levels.

Despite economic uncertainty, SMEs’ employment expectations have turned positive again. The balance figure of 3 is two points higher than in the spring 2025 barometer.

Growth potential through renewal and R&D

The multiple crises of recent years have not significantly or suddenly dampened SMEs’ growth appetite. Clearly more than one third of SMEs continue to want to grow either strongly or as much as possible. The decline in the share of strongly growth-oriented SMEs seems to have stopped at 6%. The share of SMEs with strong growth appetite remains modest, and a downward trend over the longer term is concerning.

Nineteen per cent of SMEs have adopted new technology, and 47% have invested in digitalisation over the past year. About half have also provided training for their staff. In addition, just under three businesses in ten have brought new products or services to the market.

Research and development (R&D) refers to creative and systematic work to increase knowledge and apply it in new ways. A significant share of SMEs, 25%, report engaging in R&D in some form. As expected, there are major sectoral differences: the largest share is in industry, where 37% of SMEs conduct R&D.

International tariff policy has raised costs and tightened competition

In 2025, SMEs’ export expectations have been dampened by worsening trade relations due to US tariff policy. Despite significant uncertainty, 34% of exporting SMEs expect the value of their exports to increase in the next year, with the export balance figure standing at 20.

Of SMEs, 24% are engaged in exports or other international business. The Nordic countries are the key market area, with 68% of internationally active SMEs operating there. The European Union is also an important market, with 63% of companies involved. The next most important market is the United Kingdom, where about one in five SMEs operate.

Around 13% of SMEs report higher costs due to international tariff policies or other trade restrictions, and nearly one in ten have faced tighter competition. Half of all SMEs report that tariff policies or other international trade restrictions have had no impact on their business so far. Among internationally active SMEs, the corresponding share is 43%.

Economy and stringent regulation reduce use of external finance

The prolonged difficult economic situation and the consequent reduced credit eligibility of businesses, combined with banking regulation, is visible in SMEs’ use of external finance: the barometer shows that under half of SMEs have a loan from a bank or other lender. The use of external financing has increased slightly since the spring barometer.

A positive sign is that growth-oriented companies’ interest in external financing has remained fairly strong and has even grown slightly since the spring.

The structure of business financing is changing very slowly. Bank-centred financing remains typical for SMEs, and in this barometer its share is still almost at the same level as before. Finnvera has retained its role as one of the main alternatives to bank loans, alongside Business Finland and ELY Centres.

The current year has been more challenging than expected for many SMEs, as seen in the number of payment difficulties. About 20%, or one in five SMEs, report having struggled to meet their payments in the past three months. This share increased by two percentage points from the spring 2025 barometer, exceeding the level seen in autumn 2020 during the pandemic.