Summary

SMEs’ economic outlook declined slightly from last autumn, returning to roughly the same level as a year earlier. The tariffs imposed by the United States, the tightening of international relations, the continuation of Russia’s war of aggression, and general geopolitical instability pushed expectations downward in the second half of 2025. The balance figure for economic outlook now stands at 1.

Among SMEs, 23 per cent expect economic conditions to improve over the next 12 months, while an equal share, 23 per cent, expect them to weaken. More than half of SMEs believe that conditions will remain unchanged. In the autumn 2025 barometer, the share of companies expecting an improvement was one percentage point higher, and the share expecting a deterioration two percentage points lower.

Overall, SMEs’ economic outlook expectations point to economic development in Finland that is broadly in line with, or slightly weaker than, most economic forecasts. In any case, an exceptionally high level of uncertainty continues to surround both the economic outlook and SMEs’ expectations.

Improvement in turnover expectations has stalled, and uncertainty is reducing investment

The improvement in turnover growth expectations has stalled at the same time as general economic outlook expectations turned downward. The balance figure for turnover expectations remained unchanged from the autumn barometer and stands at 14.

SMEs’ profitability expectations have weakened significantly in recent years, alongside a decline in general confidence in the economy. Expectations have recovered since the beginning of 2024, but the balance figure for profitability expectations remains negative at minus three.

SMEs expect to reduce their investments significantly in the near future. As a result of prolonged uncertainty and weak economic conditions, all main industries now have more companies planning to reduce investments than companies expecting investment to increase. The balance figure for expected changes in the value of investments remains negative at -12.

A worrying signal is that the investment intentions of strongly growth-oriented companies have weakened markedly during 2025. The balance figure describing investment intentions among strongly growth-oriented companies now stands at 33, compared with 49 in spring 2025. Although investment intentions among growth-oriented SMEs remain at a reasonable level, the decline compared with a year ago is substantial.

By far the largest share of companies, 63 per cent, intend to keep the level of innovation, production and product development unchanged. The balance figure for innovation and product development intentions, which has hovered around zero for more than two years, does not support a broad-based strengthening of the conditions for growth. Tight financial conditions in recent years have reduced companies’ opportunities for active innovation and product development.

SMEs cautious about increasing employment

SMEs take care of their employees and strive to get through weak economic conditions by retaining their workforce. Of SMEs, 14 per cent plan to increase their number of employees over the next year, while 12 per cent expect their workforce to decline. A clear majority, 74 per cent of SMEs, intend to maintain their current staffing levels.

Despite uncertain economic prospects, SMEs’ employment expectations have not turned negative. The balance figure of two is one point higher than in the autumn 2025 barometer.

Growth potential through renewal and internationalisation

The many crises of recent years have not significantly suppressed companies’ growth ambitions: just over 40 per cent of SMEs are strongly growth-oriented or seek growth whenever possible, and the share of growth-oriented SMEs has begun to increase. However, the share remains clearly below the long-term average.

Over the past year, just over a quarter of SMEs have adopted new technologies and trained their personnel. In addition, nearly three out of ten companies have launched new products or services on the market. Internationalisation is also a means of growth and skills development for many SMEs: 22 per cent of SMEs engage in exports or other business activities abroad.

Economy and stringent regulation reduce use of external finance

A prolonged period of weak economic conditions, combined with tighter regulation in banking and the phenomenon of de-risking, is reflected in SMEs’ use of external financing. Clearly less than half of SMEs have loans from banks or other financial institutions. The share has declined slightly compared with last autumn’s barometer. Interest in external financing among growth-oriented companies has decreased by seven percentage points compared with autumn 2025.

Nearly half of SMEs reported that the general availability of financing has deteriorated. This represents an increase of six percentage points compared with a year earlier, and over two years the share has risen by 13 percentage points. The tightening of lenders’ credit policies is most strongly felt by the most growth-oriented companies.

The concentration of Finland’s banking sector is evident in SMEs’ access to financial services: the two largest operators account for 71 per cent of SMEs’ main banking relationships. Finnvera’s role as an alternative and complement to bank loans has remained unchanged, with one in five companies planning to seek financing indicating that they would turn to Finnvera. In addition, 28 per cent of companies that applied for bank financing reported that access to financing required a Finnvera guarantee.

Despite a more challenging year than anticipated, the number of SMEs experiencing payment difficulties decreased clearly towards the end of the year. In this barometer, 16 per cent of companies reported difficulties in meeting their payment obligations during the past three months, a decline of four percentage points compared with the autumn 2025 barometer.

Economic outlook requires adjustment measures, and demand volatility is holding back growth

A difficult and rapidly changing operating environment is reflected in companies’ need for adjustment. Slightly more than one in five SMEs are now planning adjustment measures. The need has remained almost unchanged compared with a year ago. The most common planned measures are temporary lay-offs and various working time arrangements.

The availability of labour remains one of the key reasons why companies do not hire additional staff. Slightly less than half of SMEs consider the availability of skilled labour that meets their needs to restrict growth to some extent. The more growth-oriented a company is, the more often the availability of skilled labour is perceived as a barrier to growth and employment.

Digitalisation among SMEs has accelerated, and the use of AI has become more widespread

Websites remain by far the most commonly used digital tool in business operations. Eighty per cent of SMEs have their own website, and 64 per cent use social media for business purposes. The use of generative artificial intelligence has also become widespread: 36 per cent of SMEs report using some form of generative AI tool.

Nearly half of SMEs consider the use of AI relevant to their business operations either now or over the next year, compared with one third last year. Slightly over a quarter of SMEs report using AI regularly, and over one third use it occasionally. Slightly under one third of SMEs do not use AI at all.

AI is most commonly used for information retrieval and brainstorming, language translation, the production of text and images, and the analysis of data, information and text. The most significant barrier to the use of AI was perceived to be a lack of knowledge or skills, reported by 44 per cent of SMEs.

Ownership changes support continuity

Transferring ownership through business acquisitions, generational changes or other arrangements creates opportunities for business continuity and growth. Over the next two years, an ownership change is planned by 14 per cent of companies, a share unchanged from a year earlier. One in ten SMEs is interested in acquiring a company or business operation within the next two years. Of the companies interested in acquisitions, 75 per cent will require external financing.