SME Barometer 2/2026: Summary

SMEs’ economic outlook improved markedly compared with last spring and a year earlier. Despite the war in Iran and the resulting rise in oil prices, economic growth continuing for several quarters and persistently low inflation strengthened expectations during the first half of 2026. The balance figure for economic outlook rose by nine points from the spring 2026 barometer and now stands at 10.

Among SMEs, 29 per cent expect economic conditions to improve over the next 12 months, while 19 per cent expect them to weaken. Just over half of SMEs believe that conditions will remain unchanged. In the spring 2026 barometer, the share of companies expecting an improvement was six percentage points lower, and the share expecting a deterioration four percentage points higher.

Overall, SMEs’ economic outlook expectations point to economic development in Finland that is broadly in line with, or slightly stronger than, most economic forecasts. Despite the improved outlook, significant uncertainty continues to surround both economic development and SMEs’ expectations.

Growth expectations are rising, but uncertainty is reducing investment

Expectations for turnover growth have strengthened slowly as general economic outlook expectations have risen from their low points in 2023 and 2024. The balance figure for turnover expectations rose by two points from the spring 2026 barometer and now stands at 16.

SMEs’ profitability expectations have recovered slowly since the beginning of 2024. The most acute uncertainty about the future has eased, but the balance figure for profitability expectations remains negative at minus four.

SMEs expect to reduce their investments over the next 12 months. Weak investment intentions have been reflected in the results of the SME Barometer for several years. Manufacturing is the only main industry in which more companies plan to increase their investments than expect them to decrease. Despite investment intentions having strengthened for more than two years, the balance figure for expected changes in the value of investments remains negative at -11.

A positive signal in SMEs’ investment expectations is the sharp rise over the past two years in the balance figure tracking investment developments among strongly growth-oriented companies. The balance figure for strongly growth-oriented companies now stands at 53, compared with 20 in spring 2024.

SMEs continue to retain their workforce

Just under 15 per cent of SMEs plan to increase their number of employees over the next year. By contrast, around 11 per cent of companies expect their workforce to decline. A clear majority, 74 per cent of SMEs, intend to maintain their current staffing levels.

SMEs strive to retain their skilled employees even in challenging economic conditions. Despite prolonged weak consumer demand and increased trade and geopolitical instability, SMEs’ employment expectations have remained positive since the autumn 2024 barometer.

Growth potential through renewal and research and development

The many crises of recent years have not significantly reduced companies’ growth ambitions. Just under 40 per cent of SMEs are strongly growth-oriented or seek growth whenever possible. In addition, the long-term downward trend in the share of growth-oriented SMEs appears to have halted. However, the share remains well below the long-term average.

One in five SMEs has adopted new technology, and nearly half have invested in software, information systems or artificial intelligence over the past year. In addition, 46 per cent of companies have trained their personnel. Just under three out of ten companies have also launched new products or services on the market.

Research and development (R&D) refers to creative and systematic work undertaken to increase knowledge and use that knowledge in new applications. A significant share of SMEs, 25 per cent, report conducting research and development in some form. As expected, there are considerable differences between industries. The share is highest in manufacturing, where 42 per cent of SMEs engage in R&D.

International tariff policies have raised costs and intensified competition

During 2025 and 2026, SMEs’ export expectations have been weighed down by the tightening of trade relations resulting from US tariff policy. Despite considerable uncertainty, 44 per cent of exporting SMEs expect the value of their exports to increase over the next year, and the balance figure for expected changes in the value of exports stands at 37.

One in five SMEs engages in exports or other business activities abroad. The Nordic countries are the most important market for Finnish SMEs, with 71 per cent of companies engaged in international trade operating in the region. In addition to the Nordic countries, the rest of the European Union is also a significant market, accounting for 65 per cent. The next most important market is the United Kingdom, where around one in five SMEs operates.

Just over one fifth of SMEs reported higher costs caused by international tariff policies or other trade restrictions. In addition, more than one in ten SMEs have faced intensified competition. Just over half of all SMEs reported that tariff policies or other restrictions on international trade had not affected their business by the time of the survey. Among companies engaged in exports or other business activities abroad, the corresponding share was 46 per cent.

Economy and stringent regulation reduce use of external finance

The deterioration in companies’ creditworthiness caused by the slowly recovering economy and the prolonged period of weak economic conditions, combined with banking regulation, is reflected in SMEs’ use of external financing: fewer than 40 per cent of SMEs have loans from banks or other financial institutions. The use of external financing has declined clearly since the spring 2026 barometer.

A positive feature of financing intentions is that interest in external financing among growth-oriented companies has remained at a reasonably good level.

The current year, 2026, has been more challenging than anticipated for many SMEs, and this is reflected in the number of companies experiencing payment difficulties. Around 19 per cent, or just under one in five SMEs, reported difficulties in meeting their payment obligations during the past three months. The share rose by three percentage points from the spring 2026 barometer and is at the same level as in the pandemic autumn of 2020.

Cooperation between SMEs and education and research organisations has remained stable

A significant number of SMEs cooperate with educational institutions, education providers or development companies. The prevalence of cooperation between SMEs and educational institutions and research organisations has changed very little since autumn 2024, when the issue was last surveyed. The forms of cooperation varied, but work placements, apprenticeship training, other educational cooperation and theses featured prominently in the responses.

The benefits that companies feel they have gained from cooperation with educational institutions and research organisations have declined compared with two years ago. At that time, 45 per cent of companies felt that cooperation with higher education institutions and research organisations had strengthened their knowledge base and expertise; the share is now 40 per cent. The trend has been declining for some time.

The most commonly cited outcomes of cooperation with educational institutions and research organisations were a stronger knowledge base and greater expertise in cooperation with higher education institutions and research organisations, and the recruitment of a new skilled employee in cooperation with other education providers. In many SMEs, cooperation has also led to new or improved products or services.